Time pickers, also known as market timers, mistakenly think they can predict the future direction of the market. In their effort to time the market, they attempt to be invested in stocks when the market’s going up, and shelter investments in safe cash, treasury bills or bonds when the market’s going down.

Program Overview

For each period, the large gains or major losses for the entire period are highly concentrated at the right and left tails, making it impossible to consistently identify them in advance. In other words, it is impossible for time pickers to consistently outperform the market.

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